Jean-Claude Trichet had almost four years to settle into the role of European Central Bank president before being thrown into crisis-fighting mode. Mario Draghi goes to battle on day one.
Draghi, who succeeds Trichet tomorrow, becomes chief guardian of the euro with its 17-nation economy facing the risk of recession, a victim of the two-year-old sovereign debt crisis politicians are struggling to fix. As ECB president, he will be the second most powerful central banker in the world after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, and a key figure in the struggle to restore investor confidence in Europe’s monetary union.
“This will be a baptism of fire for Draghi,” said Nick Kounis, head of macro research at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “It is challenging to be ECB president in any environment, let alone in the midst of a serious crisis.”
As some governments look to him to back up their efforts with continued bond buying and perhaps lower interest rates, Draghi has to lead ECB policy makers at odds over how much more they can do without compromising the bank’s independence or main goal of stable prices. In a sign of the pressure Draghi faces, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said he spoke with him last week and was “convinced” the ECB will keep purchasing sovereign debt to ease strains on financial markets.
Fiscal Pressure
With a Nov. 3-4 Group of 20 summit looming, European nations from Greece to Italy are under pressure to restore fiscal order and bring an end to a crisis that’s threatening global growth.
While euro-area leaders bolstered their crisis-fighting tools at a late-night summit ending Oct. 27, a lack of detail over how the region’s rescue fund will be enlarged and how a writedown of Greek debt should be implemented may sow doubts in the weeks ahead.
Pacific Investment Management Co. Chief Executive Officer Mohamed El-Erian says the euro area has to shrink to survive, while Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman said on Oct. 27 that the ECB will ultimately have to print more money to master the debt crisis.
The governor of Italy’s central bank until the stroke of midnight, Draghi’s stance on the ECB’s bond purchases will be scrutinized after the policy contributed to the resignations of Executive Board member Juergen Stark and former Bundesbank president Axel Weber. Chairing his first ECB policy meeting on Nov. 3, he may also face pressure to cut rates four months after Trichet raised them.
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